kosssak
0x38b26fae913d2add7cda99da47b709d9ee035a16
- Realised P&L
- $-56.04
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $11.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.479 | 0.150 | $11.36 | −$24.94 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.63 |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.570Will Usyk beat Fury?
- +$1.38at 0.420Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup?
- +$1.33at 0.430Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26?
- +$1.32at 0.250Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1?
- +$0.95at 0.190Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-12 23:30 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5899999691 | $3.63 |
| 11-27 12:42 | Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4794756101 | $36.30 |
| 03-04 09:24 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | BUY | 0.1029999614 | $2.33 |
| 03-04 09:23 | Bucks vs. Pelicans | SELL | 0.68 | $0.89 |
| 03-04 09:23 | Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.89 |
| 03-04 09:22 | Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 08:56 | Georgescu banned from Romania election? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 08:56 | Bucks vs. Pelicans | BUY | 0.7599993312 | $1.00 |
| 02-28 08:55 | Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | SELL | 0.71 | $3.38 |
| 01-11 10:39 | Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 01-04 08:39 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 08:38 | Will Southampton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 08:38 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 08:38 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 12-26 12:58 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |