tomypiestany
0x38a71afaa21dd9c6b1ef9ecdaf6482da7d4bd69d
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $221.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,762
- Open portfolio
- $30.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,762
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$283.39at 0.739Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 20?
- +$267.21at 0.711Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$224.30at 0.733Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?
- +$188.71at 0.463Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 11?
- +$182.62at 0.732Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on April 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 09-19 11:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.29 | $11.60 |
| 09-19 11:36 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 09-19 11:36 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 09-19 11:36 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-19 11:34 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 09-19 11:33 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.5075 | $10.15 |
| 09-18 16:30 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.62 | $21.08 |
| 09-17 11:08 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.4777262392 | $10.51 |
| 09-16 06:11 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $40.89 |
| 09-13 10:46 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $37.13 |
| 09-13 08:22 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.23 |
| 09-13 08:22 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.31 | $5.79 |
| 09-13 08:22 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.31 | $3.86 |
| 09-12 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 12? | BUY | 0.39 | $10.53 |