0x389D2790cD8eaD87028F68eAa7CFadB6c53f5866-1767895502715
0x389d2790cd8ead87028f68eaa7cfadb6c53f5866
- Realised P&L
- $16.2k
- Volume
- $992.7k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $195.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.335 | $195.1k | −$19.1k |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? · Down | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$422.99 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.2k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? · No | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.6kat 0.160Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$6.1kat 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$536.26at 0.507Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$5.67at 0.150US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$4.88at 0.170US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 13:19 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4695332727 | $23.5k |
| 10-28 13:06 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9587778232 | $4.2k |
| 10-28 13:01 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.957061928 | $9.6k |
| 10-27 18:36 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1598401598 | $3.9k |
| 10-17 16:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.27 | $700.00 |
| 10-14 18:48 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.2k |
| 10-14 18:46 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.0k |
| 10-08 04:18 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1528117116 | $600.00 |
| 10-08 04:18 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.0k |
| 10-07 18:26 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1580871389 | $62.55 |
| 10-07 18:25 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.15 | $67.05 |
| 10-07 18:25 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1495886313 | $200.00 |
| 10-07 18:22 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1434583975 | $2.0k |
| 10-05 13:35 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1422222222 | $8.00 |
| 10-05 13:27 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.1504051303 | $800.00 |