lastmile1502
0x3881f3cd7e37021f9acd059825a007a411a90a5e
- Realised P&L
- $-126.67
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 178
- Open portfolio
- $37.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded178
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.725 | $19.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.375 | $17.86 | +$7.86 |
| Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.96 |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.958 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.59at 0.679Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
- +$8.33at 0.708Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?
- +$8.14at 0.556Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$7.87at 0.564Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
- +$4.38at 0.900Will Pau FC win on 2026-05-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 20:00 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.8399999966 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 19:59 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 07-31 01:44 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 01:44 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9582812687 | $20.00 |
| 06-25 01:11 | Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $20.00 |
| 05-28 23:27 | Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | BUY | 0.669999995 | $20.00 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters? | SELL | 0.947 | $21.61 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? | SELL | 0.6935242291 | $15.74 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters? | SELL | 0.985 | $21.24 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.954 | $22.12 |
| 05-25 23:55 | Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters? | SELL | 0.984 | $22.34 |
| 05-25 23:26 | Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General? | SELL | 0.7418746531 | $16.04 |
| 05-25 23:26 | Will Ken Paxton drop out? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.18 |
| 05-25 23:26 | Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? | SELL | 0.936 | $2.66 |