0xBG
0x38782ead6658f312960e7ed8a21eff7ae74d5ca4
- Realised P&L
- $-53.48
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $7.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts? · Yes | 0.592 | 0.205 | $6.92 | −$13.08 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.340 | $0.74 | −$0.46 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.011 | $0.17 | −$2.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.25at 0.320Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$3.55at 0.220Will Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.08at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7PM ET
- +$-1.00at 0.001Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5PM ET
- +$-10.00at 0.062Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-05 19:32 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.179999958 | $3.00 |
| 01-05 19:25 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 01-05 01:27 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | BUY | 0.5499998396 | $1.20 |
| 01-05 01:25 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | BUY | 0.5922270141 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 01:25 | Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? | BUY | 0.4799999952 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 01:11 | Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | BUY | 0.3099999895 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 01:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7PM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $2.08 |
| 01-05 00:08 | Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 01-05 00:03 | Will Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 23:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7PM ET | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 23:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5PM ET | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 01-04 23:51 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 01-04 23:48 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? | BUY | 0.061754529 | $10.00 |