0x3864a736b3ffbb7dc22a4d4cbc9e909433abc36f
0x3864a736b3ffbb7dc22a4d4cbc9e909433abc36f
- Realised P&L
- $-27.23
- Volume
- $730.48
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $280.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.725 | $61.44 | +$11.44 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.755 | $59.92 | +$9.92 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.725 | $57.54 | +$7.54 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.640 | 0.715 | $55.86 | +$5.86 |
| Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.645 | $46.07 | −$3.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.72at 0.549US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$34.05at 0.370Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
- +$-104.00at 0.551Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 14:04 | Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.7 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 14:03 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 14:03 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.589999998 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 14:02 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.64 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 14:02 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 07-25 10:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.527888442 | $50.00 |
| 05-17 13:27 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999983 | $100.00 |
| 05-01 05:55 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | BUY | 0.3699999887 | $20.00 |