Calpigs
0x3844e9b5dca13b86c2ec78a8b5a3817c585b6042
- Realised P&L
- $-94.53
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $31.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.043 | $18.96 | −$10.04 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.083 | $12.70 | −$10.30 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.67at 0.870Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$5.78at 0.910Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$0.48at 0.982Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 00:11 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 06-29 16:06 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 06-26 17:47 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0839999971 | $25.00 |
| 06-20 23:03 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.8499999957 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 22:21 | Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.3899999959 | $50.00 |
| 05-23 20:42 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.1494153261 | $23.00 |
| 05-23 20:42 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0649999979 | $29.00 |
| 05-23 18:38 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | SELL | 0.9850765637 | $162.37 |
| 02-25 19:57 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999993 | $50.00 |
| 02-25 19:56 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $100.00 |
| 02-25 19:55 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $101.66 |
| 02-25 19:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $62.48 |
| 02-15 22:38 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $38.00 |
| 02-01 05:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $91.00 |
| 01-31 03:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829999966 | $24.00 |