Lukyyyyyyy
0x382caa87e714afb16c2c8b9e2fc023d4b6b2a0d7
- Realised P&L
- $57.5k
- Volume
- $7.97M
- Markets traded
- 722
- Open portfolio
- $299.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded722
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 17? · No | 0.725 | 1.000 | $199.90 | +$54.90 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.200 | $99.00 | −$36.90 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes | 0.520 | 0.090 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.21 |
| Spread: Croatia (-2.5) · Croatia | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.50 |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spread: Croatia (-1.5) · Croatia | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.3kat 0.779Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 11?
- +$9.1kat 0.784Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
- +$7.8kat 0.700MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16?
- +$6.2kat 0.883Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?
- +$5.7kat 0.890Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 15:23 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 07-13 12:11 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | SELL | 0.997 | $649.70 |
| 07-13 12:07 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | SELL | 0.998 | $47.88 |
| 07-13 12:01 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | BUY | 0.95 | $665.60 |
| 07-02 21:36 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 07-02 21:36 | Spread: Croatia (-2.5) | BUY | 0.0125 | $12.50 |
| 07-02 21:36 | Spread: Croatia (-1.5) | BUY | 0.0475 | $95.00 |
| 07-01 11:28 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $64.96 |
| 06-29 12:05 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.2698134328 | $72.31 |
| 06-28 20:52 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? | BUY | 0.9779999883 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 20:52 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 17:17 | Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.18 | $90.00 |
| 06-27 17:17 | Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 06-27 17:16 | Spread: Croatia (-2.5) | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 08:23 | England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.2197 | $219.70 |