Sedan46
0x381fa6234339dde3ff2580fda3a04cb7d0768667
- Realised P&L
- $-4.40
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $3.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $2.27 | −$0.51 |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.009 | $1.06 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.74at 0.350Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$1.35at 0.670Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$1.29at 0.700Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?
- +$1.28at 0.760Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
- +$1.03at 0.699Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 19:55 | Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.34 |
| 10-08 19:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.0219999999 | $2.78 |
| 08-19 03:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $2.21 |
| 08-19 03:07 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-21? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.86 |
| 08-12 07:54 | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.9859999121 | $1.75 |
| 08-12 07:53 | Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000? | BUY | 0.9309999912 | $2.85 |
| 08-06 13:54 | Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9849999963 | $2.66 |
| 08-06 13:52 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.9859999991 | $2.28 |
| 07-30 18:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July? | BUY | 0.9969992705 | $1.23 |
| 07-30 18:19 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July? | BUY | 0.988999264 | $1.04 |
| 07-21 20:39 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? | BUY | 0.988 | $2.62 |
| 07-08 08:09 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | BUY | 0.9069999839 | $1.13 |
| 06-30 23:32 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? | BUY | 0.9539999977 | $3.27 |
| 06-30 23:31 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.9559999981 | $4.13 |
| 05-25 19:06 | Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.0k |