0x38195330fd2f27b576e0e4d32fa9c6a4e20dfa2a
0x38195330fd2f27b576e0e4d32fa9c6a4e20dfa2a
- Realised P&L
- $-195.46
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $98.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.523 | 0.531 | $52.91 | +$0.85 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.405 | 1.000 | $32.26 | +$19.20 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? · Yes | 0.587 | 0.075 | $12.97 | −$88.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.62at 0.504Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$58.06at 0.790Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
- +$39.70at 0.846Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
- +$38.33at 0.652Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?
- +$31.48at 0.858Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 17:42 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | SELL | 0.967 | $1.15 |
| 08-13 17:28 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | SELL | 0.966 | $5.77 |
| 08-13 17:25 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | SELL | 0.96 | $8.34 |
| 08-13 17:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.28 |
| 08-13 17:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.83 |
| 08-13 17:16 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.4048058266 | $13.06 |
| 08-13 17:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | BUY | 0.98 | $18.75 |
| 08-13 17:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.97 | $13.48 |
| 08-09 13:31 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.522964816 | $52.06 |
| 08-07 05:32 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.95 | $34.62 |
| 08-07 03:28 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.94 | $13.52 |
| 08-07 02:49 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.84 | $79.95 |
| 08-07 02:49 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.9034167215 | $13.72 |
| 08-07 02:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.94 | $15.64 |
| 08-07 01:13 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.50 |