0x38173b8508ecd1fa87c1373ec3351fe7632e0eeb
0x38173b8508ecd1fa87c1373ec3351fe7632e0eeb
- Realised P&L
- $-14.36
- Volume
- $894.84
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $26.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.145 | $20.59 | −$6.39 |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.625 | $6.25 | +$2.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.22at 0.578US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.414US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.02at 0.899Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 100k?
- +$-0.03at 0.040Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 400k?
- +$-3.20at 0.607Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.635 | $6.35 |
| 09-08 10:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $4.20 |
| 09-08 10:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.578 | $28.90 |