dazhanhong
0x3811e425b08c1bd5df2c348b19ac1eebd8cf8791
- Realised P&L
- $-11.34
- Volume
- $7.9k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $14.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.996 | $14.86 | −$0.04 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 18? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 14? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.39 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.82at 0.749Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$61.66at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$61.44at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$6.09at 0.330Raptors vs. Heat
- +$0.94at 0.992Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 09:13 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? | BUY | 0.9989999943 | $14.90 |
| 09-10 09:11 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.8599999602 | $1.73 |
| 08-28 09:14 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 07-23 09:41 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $16.60 |
| 05-30 02:19 | Netanyahu out by May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $115.00 |
| 05-28 10:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.994 | $15.00 |
| 05-28 10:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.20 |
| 05-28 10:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $100.00 |
| 05-13 10:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.00 |
| 05-13 10:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.00 |
| 05-13 10:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.997 | $43.00 |
| 05-08 12:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-08 12:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.0029999985 | $2.00 |
| 05-08 12:46 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.00 |
| 05-01 06:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? | BUY | 0.9989999928 | $122.00 |