fgydusggb
0x3803e06c6b374433c39f254f3914a72556b46d3b
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $59.4k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $4.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.877 | 0.895 | $2.4k | +$49.85 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · Yes | 0.886 | 0.880 | $2.2k | −$14.67 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.04 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.30 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET · Down | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$966.30at 0.788Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$324.31at 0.838Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
- +$146.04at 0.861Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$126.84at 0.928Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$121.03at 0.890Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8767903314 | $2.4k |
| 08-02 21:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8859093538 | $2.2k |
| 08-01 21:25 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | SELL | 0.995388835 | $2.1k |
| 08-01 10:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.82 | $697.00 |
| 07-31 23:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.8379549515 | $1.7k |
| 07-31 23:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.993005698 | $1.7k |
| 07-28 14:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $920.00 |
| 07-28 14:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | SELL | 0.992 | $920.81 |
| 07-27 20:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.4k |
| 07-27 20:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | SELL | 0.994 | $832.91 |
| 07-27 20:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | SELL | 0.996 | $554.68 |
| 07-26 16:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $239.25 |
| 07-26 16:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | SELL | 0.99 | $237.60 |
| 07-26 09:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | BUY | 0.94 | $535.80 |
| 07-26 09:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | BUY | 0.973 | $262.71 |