fgydusggb
0x3803e06c6b374433c39f254f3914a72556b46d3b
- Realised P&L
- $10.0k
- Volume
- $301.7k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $13.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? · Yes | 0.929 | 0.963 | $8.0k | +$280.67 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No | 0.945 | 0.959 | $5.0k | +$70.02 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.075 | $217.27 | −$14.48 |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.04 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET · Up | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.30 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET · Down | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$659.10 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.04 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.864US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.804US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.936US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.880US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$966.30at 0.788Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:22 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.9292121185 | $3.9k |
| 10-31 16:18 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.915 | $51.57 |
| 10-31 15:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9824878081 | $3.9k |
| 10-30 21:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 29? | SELL | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 10-29 10:14 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.9449680547 | $4.9k |
| 10-27 22:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $65.56 |
| 10-26 22:57 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.2k |
| 10-26 22:14 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.928 | $514.15 |
| 10-26 15:51 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.93 | $14.70 |
| 10-25 21:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $892.80 |
| 10-23 21:53 | Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 10-23 21:42 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.04 |
| 10-23 20:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $364.01 |
| 10-20 21:51 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.265 | $36.05 |
| 10-18 17:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.4k |