0x37fBb86C07a30d8044016a9cF44Ea4F212ef0EaF-1767622466298
0x37fbb86c07a30d8044016a9cf44ea4f212ef0eaf
- Realised P&L
- $254.76
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $17.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.941 | 0.986 | $10.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.052 | $7.20 | −$2.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$198.64at 0.304Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
- +$85.73at 0.100Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?
- +$52.80at 0.563Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
- +$8.21at 0.528Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
- +$6.67at 0.480Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:06 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0722585623 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 14:04 | Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9413396604 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 14:58 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30? | BUY | 0.9850745416 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 22:08 | Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 21:05 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 21:04 | Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? | SELL | 0.041347373 | $0.95 |
| 07-22 21:03 | Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.062489102 | $6.45 |
| 07-22 21:03 | Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $8.69 |
| 07-22 21:02 | Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? | SELL | 0.6107870722 | $6.43 |
| 07-22 21:02 | Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? | SELL | 0.8885116279 | $9.55 |
| 07-22 21:02 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | SELL | 0.5878585462 | $5.98 |
| 07-22 21:01 | Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9409107468 | $10.33 |
| 07-22 21:00 | Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? | BUY | 0.9499999715 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 21:00 | Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? | BUY | 0.9299999154 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 20:55 | Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.00 |