0x37fBb86C07a30d8044016a9cF44Ea4F212ef0EaF-1767622466298
0x37fbb86c07a30d8044016a9cf44ea4f212ef0eaf
- Realised P&L
- $261.43
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $248.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.575 | 0.615 | $213.82 | +$13.82 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.030 | $34.44 | −$65.56 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · Yes | 0.933 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$209.57at 0.381Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
- +$198.64at 0.304Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
- +$85.73at 0.100Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?
- +$58.61at 0.749Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?
- +$52.80at 0.563Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 13:40 | Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5752376753 | $200.00 |
| 10-30 11:17 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | SELL | 0.8870704562 | $192.88 |
| 10-30 11:13 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.9197700575 | $200.00 |
| 10-30 11:12 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.7801142835 | $409.57 |
| 10-29 19:00 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.3809405355 | $200.00 |
| 10-06 18:42 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? | BUY | 0.4766743614 | $43.00 |
| 10-06 18:36 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | SELL | 0.0197986734 | $22.36 |
| 10-06 18:35 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $12.39 |
| 10-06 16:42 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? | BUY | 0.8543414946 | $200.00 |
| 09-24 00:04 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 09-24 00:03 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 09-24 00:03 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $4.90 |
| 09-23 23:42 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $110.60 |
| 09-23 23:19 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $59.25 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0885568918 | $200.00 |