xfm-8-1
0x37f61476c25d6145e1873c93e43c8f174a3861bd
- Realised P&L
- $199.78
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $105.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.535 | $105.45 | +$8.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.10at 0.510Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?
- +$78.21at 0.550Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?
- +$9.83at 0.648Discord IPO before 2027?
- +$4.75at 0.975Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $280?
- +$2.70at 0.630OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 10:06 | Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.54 | $97.20 |
| 04-12 05:41 | Discord IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.648 | $181.44 |
| 04-12 05:40 | Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $196.00 |
| 03-21 03:44 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | SELL | 0.64 | $172.80 |
| 03-05 07:11 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | BUY | 0.63 | $170.10 |
| 02-19 08:43 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $280? | BUY | 0.975 | $185.25 |
| 02-19 08:41 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? | SELL | 0.995 | $189.05 |
| 02-16 02:51 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? | BUY | 0.995 | $189.05 |
| 02-16 02:49 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? | SELL | 0.985 | $187.15 |
| 02-05 12:59 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.51 | $96.90 |