pondereroffate
0x37b995b8d77eab3fa51d432dcd164556e001471b
- Realised P&L
- $-6.41
- Volume
- $73.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $342.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.057 | $342.57 | −$209.27 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.049 | $0.37 | −$0.01 |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$187.86 |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$218.65at 0.054Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
- +$159.22at 0.032Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
- +$50.08at 0.010Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$43.29at 0.3602026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- +$22.10at 0.900Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 07:25 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.0911606715 | $11.40 |
| 08-14 07:22 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.0919066667 | $137.86 |
| 08-14 07:20 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.0887775306 | $11.97 |
| 08-14 07:17 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.0531439161 | $15.56 |
| 08-13 09:49 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.09791168 | $192.80 |
| 08-11 18:42 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.38 |
| 08-07 23:57 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.1005047619 | $105.53 |
| 07-08 06:30 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | BUY | 0.069958935 | $31.01 |
| 05-19 22:42 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.0797701149 | $6.94 |
| 05-19 22:41 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.64 |
| 05-19 22:40 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.0807295397 | $9.87 |
| 05-19 22:38 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.0697602636 | $5.51 |
| 05-19 22:37 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.0520995591 | $9.57 |
| 05-19 22:36 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.050250384 | $24.53 |
| 05-19 22:36 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | BUY | 0.0265384615 | $2.59 |