valeramorkon
0x37b498ef1e0ecb540d841603b7adcc1ad741dfda
- Realised P&L
- $56.60
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 165
- Open portfolio
- $139.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded165
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nationalize elections? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $65.67 | −$0.35 |
| Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · No | 0.980 | 0.986 | $43.70 | +$0.24 |
| Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · No | 0.980 | 0.757 | $18.93 | −$5.58 |
| Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? · No | 0.980 | 0.549 | $11.33 | −$8.88 |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.80at 0.989Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$10.57at 0.930Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$4.15at 0.994Will Rihanna be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?
- +$3.83at 0.976Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?
- +$3.10at 0.981Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 12:10 | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.98 | $18.96 |
| 09-10 12:09 | Will Franco Colapinto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.98 | $24.50 |
| 09-10 12:09 | Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.98 | $20.21 |
| 09-10 12:09 | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.98 | $24.49 |
| 09-10 12:05 | Will Trump nationalize elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $66.03 |
| 07-17 11:12 | Will the World Cup Final national anthem last less than 80 seconds? | BUY | 0.97 | $25.22 |
| 07-17 11:10 | Will Nicolás Otamendi Miss a Penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.997 | $59.82 |
| 07-17 11:10 | Will Giovani Lo Celso Miss a Penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.92 |
| 07-17 11:10 | Will Álex Grimaldo Miss a Penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.92 |
| 07-17 11:10 | Will Marcos Senesi Miss a Penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.996 | $24.90 |
| 07-03 17:51 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.992 | $101.18 |
| 07-03 17:51 | Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.92 |
| 06-13 10:32 | Will Sergio Perez win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.99 | $47.51 |
| 06-13 10:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $119.12 |
| 05-11 21:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.981 | $159.90 |