0x37a322653a15ac69e8f321fff1e48e593431938f
- Realised P&L
- $36.80
- Volume
- $363.00
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $90.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.805 | $48.30 | +$18.30 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.850 | $15.30 | +$0.18 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.935 | 0.955 | $6.68 | +$0.14 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.165 | $6.11 | −$4.25 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.474 | 0.696 | $5.57 | +$1.78 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.955 | $4.77 | +$0.37 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.885 | $1.77 | +$0.37 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.105 | $1.05 | −$0.55 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.150 | $0.90 | −$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.85at 0.500Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$3.42at 0.120Iran nuclear test before 2027?
- +$2.09at 0.310Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.38at 0.135Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.36at 0.850China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 07:13 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.928 | $4.64 |
| 06-17 05:00 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.935 | $6.54 |
| 06-07 15:32 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.661 | $5.29 |
| 06-05 12:17 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.474 | $3.79 |
| 04-28 01:03 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 04-28 01:03 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.503 | $3.02 |
| 04-12 06:42 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $10.36 |
| 04-12 06:42 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 04-12 06:42 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 04-10 06:22 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $19.32 |
| 04-10 06:21 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.06 |
| 03-28 20:13 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $12.32 |
| 03-28 20:13 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.08 |
| 03-26 20:02 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $9.10 |
| 03-26 20:02 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $3.41 |