air01
0x37926c952685c62ba07296007aba3a9f35683a3a
- Realised P&L
- $-79.89
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $8.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.055 | $8.20 | −$90.14 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.03 |
| Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.91 |
| Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.42 |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.32 |
| Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.16at 0.406Lakers vs. Warriors
- +$59.57at 0.062Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Jan 10-17?
- +$41.69at 0.477Pacers vs. Kings
- +$21.00at 0.200Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally?
- +$17.95at 0.390Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-05 08:35 | Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $17.28 |
| 01-29 09:47 | Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $25.20 |
| 01-27 19:58 | Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $126.06 |
| 01-17 13:59 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.0424619 | $4.25 |
| 12-19 16:55 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.036 | $4.32 |
| 12-19 16:00 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $21.00 |
| 12-19 14:51 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0402516 | $4.03 |
| 12-19 12:47 | Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? | BUY | 0.2993680079 | $36.61 |
| 12-15 05:46 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.977 | $97.70 |
| 12-12 12:48 | Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? | BUY | 0.20953805 | $41.91 |
| 10-20 05:14 | Will the Government shutdown end by October 24? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 10-16 11:26 | Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18 | BUY | 0.986 | $98.60 |
| 10-13 08:38 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? | BUY | 0.973 | $72.29 |
| 01-19 08:04 | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally? | SELL | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 01-19 08:04 | Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? | SELL | 0.24 | $44.94 |