0x378a4dd2290d164a10faae2918340d96969b001b
- Realised P&L
- $154.07
- Volume
- $16.5k
- Markets traded
- 558
- Open portfolio
- $0.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded558
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.037 | $0.40 | −$1.19 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.007 | $0.19 | −$1.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$207.23at 0.186Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
- +$47.46at 0.063Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$31.74at 0.110Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$31.58at 0.240Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
- +$31.30at 0.317Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 06:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.54 |
| 09-08 06:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $4.74 |
| 09-08 06:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $3.54 |
| 09-08 06:02 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $1.32 |
| 09-08 06:02 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $2.33 |
| 09-05 11:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1904761905 | $2.00 |
| 09-05 10:01 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 22:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 22:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 14:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.46 | $1.84 |
| 09-03 14:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.45 |
| 09-03 14:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 09:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 07:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 20:26 | Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.104 | $0.41 |