ddd8989
0x37760d5dc39b3b5d2118930b9380ca999d53edb3
- Realised P&L
- $-695.04
- Volume
- $37.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $214.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $214.50 | −$412.50 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.05 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$193.50 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.00 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.47 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? · No | 0.454 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? · Yes | 0.679 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$585.97at 0.406Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
- +$207.87at 0.800Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$145.03at 0.730US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$138.72at 0.705Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$110.91at 0.690US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 08:24 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $37.89 |
| 06-12 19:36 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999995 | $260.00 |
| 06-05 17:02 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.033877193 | $1.93 |
| 06-05 17:02 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.038 | $15.88 |
| 06-05 17:02 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0367435897 | $2.87 |
| 06-05 17:01 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.025 | $22.50 |
| 06-05 17:00 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.024 | $9.60 |
| 06-05 17:00 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.023 | $2.01 |
| 06-05 17:00 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0369719298 | $10.54 |
| 06-05 16:59 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.50 |
| 06-05 16:59 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0387676045 | $18.63 |
| 06-05 16:57 | Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.50 |
| 06-05 16:56 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0347195013 | $1.56 |
| 06-05 16:51 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | BUY | 0.16 | $193.50 |
| 06-05 16:40 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $432.45 |