thor666
0x37499246c9d3695d623c1244b58e7ebb94124094
- Realised P&L
- $-4.3k
- Volume
- $233.9k
- Markets traded
- 714
- Open portfolio
- $41.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded714
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.150 | $16.09 | −$7.51 |
| Will Labor win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.051 | $12.17 | −$35.55 |
| Will Cyril Xaba be the next mayor of eThekwini? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.039 | $8.72 | −$31.53 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.101 | $3.69 | −$4.38 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.004 | $0.42 | −$24.58 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.16at 0.600Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?
- +$4.82at 0.428Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
- +$0.57at 0.500Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?
- +$0.50at 0.390Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
- +$0.39at 0.710Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 12:43 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-03 House election by 5%-10%? | SELL | 0.1 | $5.42 |
| 09-24 11:46 | Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | SELL | 0.31 | $11.38 |
| 09-22 18:24 | Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.1448000768 | $30.17 |
| 09-22 18:22 | Will Japan win Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup? | SELL | 0.28 | $18.59 |
| 09-22 18:21 | Will Morocco win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group A? | SELL | 0.1 | $18.83 |
| 09-22 18:20 | Will Albania win 2026-27 Nations League Group C1? | SELL | 0.45 | $33.91 |
| 09-22 13:01 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-04 House election by 15%-20%? | SELL | 0.6578002432 | $43.27 |
| 09-22 10:58 | Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $41.38 |
| 09-22 09:16 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.2128369028 | $32.30 |
| 09-22 08:58 | Will Morocco win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group A? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 09-22 08:43 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $23.09 |
| 09-22 07:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $40.97 |
| 09-22 06:44 | Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4? | SELL | 0.58 | $48.33 |
| 09-22 06:41 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | SELL | 0.79 | $49.38 |
| 09-22 06:25 | Will “Drag Path” by Twenty One Pilots win Best Alternative at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.14 | $6.11 |