0x37286389196e4fe92e98DEdAED90f4A028FCCEFf-1768967224325
0x37286389196e4fe92e98dedaed90f4a028fcceff
- Realised P&L
- $344.89
- Volume
- $25.9k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $11.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.015 | $11.26 | −$8.74 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.809 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-07-04? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.04 |
| Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$700.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? · No | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.00 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.407 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$700.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.035U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
- +$338.24at 0.437Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
- +$161.30at 0.387Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$92.20at 0.686Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?
- +$80.47at 0.557Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 00:08 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | BUY | 0.0266530914 | $20.00 |
| 10-21 00:06 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.0539475089 | $10.00 |
| 10-21 00:05 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.808999999 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 18:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.9399999906 | $4.00 |
| 07-07 18:50 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.2699999975 | $70.00 |
| 07-06 22:43 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.72 | $54.81 |
| 07-06 22:42 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.014 | $57.34 |
| 07-06 22:42 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.2699999945 | $24.00 |
| 07-05 03:50 | Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3099999948 | $40.00 |
| 07-05 03:49 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3099999968 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 03:49 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | SELL | 0.2 | $45.63 |
| 07-05 03:48 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | SELL | 0.53 | $49.07 |
| 07-05 03:46 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.2099999967 | $47.91 |
| 07-05 03:46 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.5399999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 03:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.9169999868 | $1.60 |