jaredg
0x36c2318e72cb80d60a8eb6474ea134b03e8a2b8c
- Realised P&L
- $-893.08
- Volume
- $73.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,718
- Open portfolio
- $846.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,718
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.416 | 0.235 | $846.72 | −$653.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$333.91at 0.478Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$110.36at 0.584Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15?
- +$109.90at 0.643Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1?
- +$101.58at 0.340Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 13?
- +$96.12at 0.199Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 19:12 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3110584675 | $500.00 |
| 06-24 17:59 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5010851068 | $1000.00 |
| 06-17 18:41 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.4685398276 | $300.00 |
| 04-30 19:46 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 1? | BUY | 0.64 | $18.11 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.8 | $19.40 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.8 | $21.95 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.7906666667 | $29.03 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.79 | $29.00 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $28.99 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.77 | $29.34 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.71 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 28? | BUY | 0.76 | $15.46 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 28? | BUY | 0.75 | $0.18 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 28? | BUY | 0.75 | $28.88 |
| 04-26 13:10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28? | BUY | 0.74 | $29.19 |