Asperatus
0x36a7e80b487b26eebce266da0640e33dd4651aea
- Realised P&L
- $-860.57
- Volume
- $18.12M
- Markets traded
- 743
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded743
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$497.61at 0.583Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$330.59at 0.007Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$318.53at 0.001Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$309.42at 0.027Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$294.41at 0.731Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 00:54 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.002 | $23.72 |
| 09-12 01:11 | Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.00 |
| 09-12 01:08 | Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.31 |
| 09-12 01:08 | Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.005 | $25.00 |
| 09-10 17:55 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 09-10 11:17 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.81 | $40.50 |
| 09-10 11:16 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.002 | $30.00 |
| 09-10 11:15 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.001 | $19.21 |
| 09-09 23:06 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 09-09 23:05 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $282.00 |
| 09-09 01:02 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $29.19 |
| 09-09 01:02 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $97.30 |
| 09-09 01:00 | Over $6M committed to the Linera public sale? | BUY | 0.998 | $70.96 |
| 09-09 01:00 | Over $4M committed to the Linera public sale? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 09-07 19:55 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.39 |