VabagundoM
0x3611755250e5ab63e5ab6b4e4ad2f7020f6310a7
- Realised P&L
- $-28.61
- Volume
- $6.6k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $1.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.001 | $1.30 | −$115.13 |
| Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2025? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.80 |
| Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? · Avatar | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.98 |
| Will Chainlink hit $30 before August? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.00at 0.260Will Barcelona win La Liga?
- +$63.96at 0.100Will France win Junior Eurovision 2025?
- +$32.38at 0.490Will SOL flip XRP again in 2024?
- +$16.00at 0.600Ripple above $2.35 on February 14?
- +$14.50at 0.420Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 17:00 | Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.0373488772 | $3.48 |
| 05-13 22:37 | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.98 |
| 04-12 22:03 | Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 12-16 00:28 | Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? | BUY | 0.9668095165 | $5.00 |
| 05-12 11:49 | XRP above $2.50 on May 16? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 04-26 19:07 | Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona | BUY | 0.57 | $4.56 |
| 04-20 12:25 | Ripple above $2.10 on April 25? | BUY | 0.43 | $3.01 |
| 04-15 14:06 | Ripple above $2.00 on April 18? | BUY | 0.8099999426 | $2.40 |
| 04-11 09:11 | Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.32 | $25.60 |
| 02-19 22:47 | Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $7.96 |
| 01-17 14:12 | Will Barcelona win La Liga? | BUY | 0.26 | $52.00 |
| 01-03 13:55 | Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 12-06 22:52 | Will SOL flip XRP again in 2024? | BUY | 0.4899999991 | $31.11 |
| 11-30 17:30 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | BUY | 0.9599999762 | $29.00 |
| 11-29 09:58 | Ripple above $1.46 on November 29? | BUY | 0.9779999998 | $9.00 |