PavelSvimbov
0x3587f3eff7f17a7971122bc0e2c625ea6a500d34
- Realised P&L
- $-141.02
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $178.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.470 | $178.60 | −$9.00 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 26, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.90 |
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$171.37at 0.977Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
- +$72.15at 0.311Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$45.25at 0.760Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
- +$36.78at 0.816Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$27.45at 0.820Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 12:46 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $150.00 |
| 10-12 16:32 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 10-11 13:38 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 10-10 17:23 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 10-10 17:23 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1983774136 | $24.45 |
| 10-10 17:22 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 08-25 15:00 | Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $58.90 |
| 08-25 14:25 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $132.32 |
| 04-25 20:24 | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.09 |
| 04-25 20:24 | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $60.04 |
| 04-05 07:54 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $130.07 |
| 12-16 16:34 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 12-16 16:33 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $30.91 |
| 12-16 16:11 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31? | BUY | 0.7799999728 | $1.72 |
| 12-16 15:47 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.72 |