chad99
0x3561be909ffb7fcaf55055fa7773eead7c428452
- Realised P&L
- $-102.56
- Volume
- $25.7k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $14.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will “Safe” by Cardi B featuring Kehlani win Best Hip-Hop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.710 | $14.20 | +$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.60at 0.398Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
- +$0.38at 0.989Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31?
- +$0.24at 0.992Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?
- +$0.22at 0.989Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$0.15at 0.987Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:26 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.28 |
| 01-30 12:19 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979998506 | $4.33 |
| 01-30 11:50 | Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.56 |
| 01-30 11:50 | Will Solana dip to $70 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.17 |
| 01-30 11:41 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999992 | $59.12 |
| 12-30 08:15 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.68 |
| 12-30 00:56 | Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.38 |
| 12-30 00:17 | Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999946 | $30.15 |
| 12-29 20:21 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.06 |
| 12-29 19:38 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.99 |
| 10-31 15:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? | BUY | 0.998999931 | $12.15 |
| 10-31 15:03 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.41 |
| 10-30 18:30 | Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $34.43 |
| 09-29 16:37 | Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.79 |
| 09-29 12:34 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.90 |