0x353d91eab8397895ce847edd4b180c2cf94de4b2
0x353d91eab8397895ce847edd4b180c2cf94de4b2
- Realised P&L
- $4.26
- Volume
- $64.36
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $7.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? · No | 0.961 | 0.943 | $2.45 | −$0.05 |
| Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.510 | $1.82 | +$0.82 |
| Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.203 | $1.79 | −$0.59 |
| Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.057 | $1.40 | −$0.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?
- +$1.11at 0.480Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 15?
- +$0.17at 0.855Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?
- +$-0.03at 0.512Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 03:31 | Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:31 | Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 88% to 90%? | BUY | 0.2699999943 | $2.38 |
| 10-16 03:31 | Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | BUY | 0.0969999979 | $2.38 |
| 10-13 03:30 | Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 15? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 03:30 | Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 03:31 | Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31? | BUY | 0.8499997025 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 03:31 | Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 15? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 03:31 | Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 03:31 | Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:31 | Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | BUY | 0.94999962 | $1.50 |
| 10-01 03:31 | Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | BUY | 0.9779999883 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 03:31 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5049997551 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 03:31 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 03:32 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 03:30 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998671 | $1.65 |