arbgod67
0x349f9e33dbe5e3c9b35a364528605262e2e6171e
- Realised P&L
- $-122.25
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $20.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dylan Cease strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.348 | $14.52 | +$13.52 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.085 | $4.25 | −$10.75 |
| Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.024 | $1.41 | −$3.09 |
| Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.91 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.608 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.17at 0.808Ebola case in the US by June 30?
- +$1.03at 0.497Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
- +$-0.59at 0.030Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?
- +$-1.90at 0.073Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat?
- +$-2.00at 0.266ITF Luan: Zhenxiong Dong vs Tsung Hao Huang
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 22:52 | Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.95 |
| 06-10 19:36 | Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.07 | $9.45 |
| 06-10 03:55 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $64.38 |
| 06-10 01:25 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 22:59 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.91 |
| 06-09 22:58 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | SELL | 0.1442502 | $72.13 |
| 06-08 17:36 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.608 | $18.23 |
| 06-08 17:35 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.607 | $7.34 |
| 06-08 17:34 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.607 | $5.65 |
| 06-08 01:39 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $105.00 |
| 06-08 01:37 | Will Dylan Cease strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 06-08 01:36 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $40.00 |
| 06-08 01:32 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $19.20 |
| 06-03 23:53 | Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? | BUY | 0.075 | $4.50 |
| 06-03 23:51 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |