Casimira
0x346369c1ab1121be5d79e40eae54ff791d99cde3
- Realised P&L
- $-279.60
- Volume
- $26.8k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $559.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.799 | 0.722 | $559.16 | −$60.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$317.82at 0.196EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$304.17at 0.510EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$256.26at 0.487Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?
- +$174.37at 0.590Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-08?
- +$142.71at 0.597Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 07:10 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0111245902 | $23.75 |
| 08-05 11:18 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4805208333 | $92.26 |
| 07-27 14:29 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4602631579 | $87.45 |
| 05-07 20:40 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? | SELL | 0.84 | $502.19 |
| 05-07 16:35 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? | BUY | 0.59 | $352.73 |
| 04-30 11:25 | Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 04-02 11:34 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.53 | $183.96 |
| 04-01 06:40 | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.06 | $120.00 |
| 03-31 23:10 | Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | SELL | 0.2 | $39.27 |
| 03-31 23:04 | Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | SELL | 0.4020560371 | $46.85 |
| 03-31 22:55 | Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | SELL | 0.16 | $16.00 |
| 03-31 22:54 | Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | SELL | 0.1 | $16.67 |
| 03-31 22:14 | Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | BUY | 0.39 | $5.85 |
| 03-31 22:12 | Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | BUY | 0.65 | $62.41 |
| 03-31 22:12 | Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | BUY | 0.11 | $21.04 |