0x345bf94379ae2c5eb1a0e527a10a977fc7915421
0x345bf94379ae2c5eb1a0e527a10a977fc7915421
- Realised P&L
- $3.50
- Volume
- $103.14
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $5.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.875 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.460 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.790 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.660 | $0.82 | −$0.17 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.430 | $0.69 | −$0.31 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · No | 0.220 | 0.125 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$1.36at 0.430Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $367.50 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$1.20at 0.460Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?
- +$0.59at 0.630US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$0.56at 0.640Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 17:58 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 08:18 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:59 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:35 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:17 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:38 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:08 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:38 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 16:46 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 29? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:10 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:45 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 21:47 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 13:46 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:42 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:34 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |