0x344c26ecbc574dbf0e04abe550df0dd6dbd3c689
0x344c26ecbc574dbf0e04abe550df0dd6dbd3c689
- Realised P&L
- $17.97
- Volume
- $324.83
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $86.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.84at 0.302Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
- +$9.30at 0.395Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?
- +$4.96at 0.290Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
- +$3.17at 0.803Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?
- +$0.94at 0.810Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on October 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:43 | Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $7.60 |
| 11-01 10:48 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 10:48 | Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30? | BUY | 0.613 | $6.20 |
| 11-01 10:44 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 11-01 04:56 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 22:35 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2? | BUY | 0.79 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 18:47 | Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m? | BUY | 0.0594 | $0.74 |
| 10-31 18:47 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more? | BUY | 0.769 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 13:57 | Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.4505709024 | $2.45 |
| 10-31 13:57 | Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.7515540541 | $4.45 |
| 10-31 13:57 | Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.00 |
| 10-31 11:05 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.673 | $4.40 |
| 10-31 05:21 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.90 |
| 10-31 05:21 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.50 |
| 10-30 23:04 | Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.60 |