abccbaq
0x343fdd2bf9272bd12cffbfe510f3969f57e36df2
- Realised P&L
- $30.6k
- Volume
- $1.26M
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? · No | 0.995 | 0.998 | $6.4k | +$13.15 |
| Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.974 | 0.974 | $974.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? · Yes | 0.952 | 0.956 | $271.65 | +$1.19 |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $251.86 | +$0.42 |
| Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections? · Yes | 0.986 | 0.984 | $59.04 | −$0.12 |
| Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections? · Yes | 0.963 | 0.976 | $48.80 | +$0.65 |
| Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? · No | 0.953 | 0.989 | $29.66 | +$1.06 |
| Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.6kat 0.562MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$8.2kat 0.012New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?
- +$6.8kat 0.346MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$4.0kat 0.725MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.675Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 09:28 | Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? | BUY | 0.996 | $124.50 |
| 09-13 09:27 | Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.6k |
| 09-03 09:29 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $164.84 |
| 08-31 11:40 | Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? | BUY | 0.942 | $129.02 |
| 08-13 08:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.0k |
| 08-10 12:01 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase August 4-10? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 08-10 12:01 | Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin August 4-10? | BUY | 0.9984382022 | $888.61 |
| 08-10 12:00 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 4-10? | BUY | 0.9973053573 | $591.05 |
| 08-06 20:04 | Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $193.74 |
| 08-05 10:31 | Will CVS Health (CVS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 08-04 20:13 | Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-04 10:32 | Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 08-03 22:15 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.743814 | $74.38 |
| 08-03 12:01 | Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 08-03 11:37 | Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.9936 | $99.36 |