AirborneButter
0x342c8bceecf76bb2a5ed033ad52a807cd9070c03
- Realised P&L
- $3.05
- Volume
- $649.35
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $13.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? · Yes | 0.656 | 0.989 | $9.04 | +$3.04 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.065 | $1.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.135 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.275 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.033 | $0.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.145 | $0.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.030 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.036 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.42at 0.417Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
- +$1.26at 0.447Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
- +$0.96at 0.510Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.85at 0.540Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?
- +$0.71at 0.587Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:43 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $2.86 |
| 09-17 20:42 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $4.84 |
| 09-17 20:35 | Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0699377093 | $10.44 |
| 09-11 22:16 | Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1784574867 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 22:15 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.014 | $0.70 |
| 09-11 22:15 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.94 |
| 09-11 00:00 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 23:21 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 18:07 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $4.00 |
| 09-07 21:45 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 08-08 06:15 | Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1039999135 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 21:58 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 21:48 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.00 |
| 08-06 08:57 | Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0849999286 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 08:57 | Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0849999286 | $1.00 |