S12fgfg
0x340205e809efb8455db0fa12e57ebade51b8b567
- Realised P&L
- $-6.15
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $0.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.785 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.110 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.33at 0.600Will Union St.-Gilloise beat Ajax Amsterdam?
- +$0.86at 0.720Shedeur Sanders on Browns Week 1 Roster?
- +$0.74at 0.730Longshoremen east coast strike by Oct 1?
- +$0.51at 0.900Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
- +$0.37at 0.995Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 08:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 08:36 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.994 | $799.20 |
| 10-29 10:04 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.995 | $800.00 |
| 06-01 06:32 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.992 | $149.84 |
| 06-01 06:32 | Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.993 | $99.90 |
| 05-29 07:32 | Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.994 | $100.00 |
| 05-29 07:31 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.993 | $150.00 |
| 05-05 04:55 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.992 | $487.51 |
| 05-05 04:55 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.995 | $249.75 |
| 05-02 12:10 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.996 | $250.00 |
| 05-02 12:10 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.993 | $488.00 |
| 04-16 04:58 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.999 | $200.00 |
| 04-16 04:58 | Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.992 | $276.72 |
| 04-13 11:23 | Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.995 | $123.00 |
| 04-13 11:23 | Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.993 | $123.13 |