0x33ef31a44639dff6d99b46407d6939791d00e619
- Realised P&L
- $-209.06
- Volume
- $21.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $97.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.357 | 0.325 | $38.57 | −$3.79 |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? · No | 0.925 | 0.963 | $30.96 | +$1.20 |
| Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.088 | $8.97 | −$3.93 |
| Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.070 | $4.97 | −$8.47 |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.043 | $4.09 | −$6.22 |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.037 | $3.08 | −$4.42 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.360 | $2.24 | −$1.93 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.984 | $2.13 | +$0.05 |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.755 | $1.48 | +$0.01 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.017 | $1.36 | −$1.94 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$125.65at 0.060Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
- +$122.10at 0.270Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
- +$93.40at 0.436Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$87.93at 0.240Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
- +$86.45at 0.150Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 07:06 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.42 | $117.09 |
| 07-23 03:14 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.3501807052 | $155.03 |
| 07-23 03:11 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $96.39 |
| 07-23 03:08 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.5242092194 | $130.89 |
| 07-23 03:07 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | SELL | 0.76 | $146.00 |
| 07-16 04:26 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $171.43 |
| 07-15 05:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.43 | $2.73 |
| 07-15 05:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $264.25 |
| 07-15 05:30 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $216.92 |
| 07-11 18:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $248.64 |