0x339481ff87a79139c595caf3bedb5183f5c3f3db
- Realised P&L
- $-8.26
- Volume
- $111.60
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $8.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.485 | $2.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.430 | 0.425 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.160 | $1.23 | −$0.77 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.230 | 0.095 | $0.83 | −$1.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.56at 0.360Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.64at 0.550Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.39at 0.590Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 04:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 20:04 | Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 12:03 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:01 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 07:59 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 23:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 15:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 07:58 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in June? | BUY | 0.295999929 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:27 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:22 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:01 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:12 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 20:11 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |