LauraHall3070
0x334aa23ab15f4995eb178904463dd8553d93832e
- Realised P&L
- $335.81
- Volume
- $67.3k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $135.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.480 | $124.80 | +$10.40 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.037 | $5.85 | −$97.11 |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.140 | 0.810 | $5.05 | +$4.18 |
| 50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.28 |
| Will ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.77 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.48 |
| Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$391.59at 0.430Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
- +$156.96at 0.362Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
- +$113.88at 0.870Will Trove launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- +$56.70at 0.860Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?
- +$49.27at 0.240Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-08 19:48 | OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? | SELL | 0.88 | $58.96 |
| 02-08 19:46 | 50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.72 |
| 01-11 15:18 | Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | SELL | 0.326 | $219.40 |
| 01-11 13:27 | Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.723 | $83.87 |
| 01-11 13:25 | Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.723 | $86.04 |
| 01-11 12:02 | Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? | BUY | 0.86 | $348.30 |
| 01-11 11:39 | Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31? | SELL | 0.68 | $168.64 |
| 01-11 10:54 | Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.762 | $179.07 |
| 01-11 10:00 | Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.2 | $8.60 |
| 01-11 09:04 | Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $171.12 |
| 01-11 08:49 | Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.22 | $9.46 |
| 01-11 07:56 | Amouranth divorced by June 30? | SELL | 0.78 | $282.36 |
| 01-11 07:55 | Amouranth divorced by June 30? | SELL | 0.78 | $343.20 |
| 01-11 04:34 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | SELL | 0.33 | $16.83 |
| 01-11 02:43 | Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $6.30 |