0x330b3df78348526dfb0119ceec17dcf7e999e3c6
- Realised P&L
- $-71.06
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 278
- Open portfolio
- $54.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded278
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.860 | $40.45 | +$8.47 |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.085 | $13.66 | −$2.41 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.63 |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.50at 0.650Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$11.56at 0.775Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$10.20at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
- +$10.18at 0.491Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
- +$8.30at 0.780Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 19:08 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.021 | $4.32 |
| 07-04 23:11 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.63 |
| 06-15 04:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.3 | $7.50 |
| 06-15 04:39 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY | 0.977 | $19.74 |
| 06-15 04:38 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $19.76 |
| 06-15 04:28 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY | 0.9762663366 | $19.72 |
| 05-30 08:02 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.85 |
| 05-27 13:08 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.29 |
| 05-27 11:28 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.00 |
| 05-27 10:57 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.01 |
| 05-27 10:19 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.03 |
| 05-27 10:19 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.01 |
| 05-27 09:23 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.01 |
| 05-27 08:03 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.01 |
| 05-27 00:10 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $0.00 |