john1414
0x32f9af65588fdac72e9e178eb27d6cebb52e3344
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $33.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $462.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.563 | 0.065 | $279.63 | −$2.1k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.034 | $166.81 | −$844.77 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.055 | $16.29 | −$116.98 |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$557.91at 0.035Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
- +$105.00at 0.160US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$76.00at 0.200US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$46.75at 0.660US recession by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-30 13:57 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7466000066 | $452.48 |
| 03-23 14:37 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999995 | $400.00 |
| 03-03 23:12 | Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | BUY | 0.2599694957 | $150.00 |
| 03-03 14:03 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.4296869314 | $607.91 |
| 03-02 00:49 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.449999999 | $133.27 |
| 03-02 00:45 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0200703949 | $200.00 |
| 03-02 00:44 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0353413899 | $50.00 |
| 03-02 00:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.49 | $196.17 |
| 03-02 00:42 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.5778066708 | $187.09 |
| 03-02 00:41 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2063318686 | $511.03 |
| 03-02 00:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.58 | $511.03 |
| 03-02 00:39 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $500.56 |
| 03-02 00:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.4751185504 | $500.57 |
| 03-01 23:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4799999999 | $2.0k |
| 03-01 23:53 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.5629449857 | $3.0k |