rickyvaughn
0x32d1623dddbd4841a98da71e47f0436d2ef2b949
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $2.14M
- Markets traded
- 396
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded396
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.5kat 0.152Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$8.6kat 0.316Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$6.2kat 0.148Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
- +$2.5kat 0.260Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.025US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 05:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0996032258 | $15.44 |
| 08-02 07:21 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $205.92 |
| 08-02 06:14 | Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 08-02 06:13 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0258031775 | $7.86 |
| 08-02 06:13 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 06:11 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 08-02 02:43 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $42.90 |
| 08-02 01:09 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $46.00 |
| 08-02 00:59 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 00:57 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? | SELL | 0.0245172504 | $3.75 |
| 08-02 00:57 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.08 | $8.89 |
| 08-01 22:41 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 22:38 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $6.44 |
| 08-01 22:37 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | BUY | 0.0242919255 | $3.91 |
| 08-01 22:04 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |