0x326fe03ABa2bCBF071149C995df269D2A5110031-1759674585833
0x326fe03aba2bcbf071149c995df269d2a5110031
- Realised P&L
- $-5.3k
- Volume
- $917.5k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.540 | $4.7k | −$2.8k |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? · No | 0.580 | 0.530 | $529.99 | −$50.00 |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.145 | $93.70 | +$18.22 |
| Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026? · No | 0.200 | 0.835 | $20.88 | +$15.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.907Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?
- +$880.81at 0.949Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
- +$835.56at 0.948Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$788.61at 0.783Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
- +$696.00at 0.941Netanyahu out by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 04:00 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $7.5k |
| 08-26 14:13 | Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)? | BUY | 0.9957295027 | $3.1k |
| 08-26 13:33 | Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)? | BUY | 0.9938942309 | $2.8k |
| 08-14 23:31 | Will Dune: Part Three win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.13 | $28.60 |
| 08-14 23:31 | Will Dune: Part Three win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.11 | $46.89 |
| 08-12 22:18 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | SELL | 0.997 | $997.00 |
| 08-12 21:18 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.85 | $850.00 |
| 08-12 02:30 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.60999 | $609.99 |
| 08-11 23:47 | Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | BUY | 0.92 | $544.29 |
| 08-11 18:58 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.993 | $4.96 |
| 08-11 18:57 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.993 | $4.96 |
| 08-11 18:56 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.993 | $4.96 |
| 08-11 18:53 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.992 | $4.96 |
| 07-29 22:58 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.9529162717 | $6.0k |
| 07-08 23:56 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.2k |