0x324Bb2405AdD3f31ba36f46B32C8fe1C28E0BEf9-1773132122048
0x324bb2405add3f31ba36f46b32c8fe1c28e0bef9
- Realised P&L
- $-163.49
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $100.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.165 | $99.00 | −$132.00 |
| Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.500 | 0.870 | $1.48 | +$0.63 |
| Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.085 | $0.27 | −$1.32 |
| GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.12at 0.500Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
- +$5.78at 0.500Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?
- +$5.76at 0.500Will Ethena reach $0.24 in March?
- +$5.74at 0.500Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?
- +$5.54at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 05:41 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 03-29 03:09 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | BUY | 0.761 | $9.57 |
| 03-27 02:07 | GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 03-27 02:06 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 03-22 03:42 | Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.00 |
| 03-21 08:44 | Tabi FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.976 | $8.30 |
| 03-21 08:43 | Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.56 | $4.76 |
| 03-21 08:43 | Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? | SELL | 0.625 | $3.13 |
| 03-21 08:42 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.389 | $3.89 |
| 03-21 08:38 | EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.93 | $8.37 |
| 03-21 08:38 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | SELL | 0.97 | $9.70 |
| 03-21 08:37 | GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.913 | $10.96 |
| 03-21 08:36 | GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 03-21 08:35 | Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.977 | $10.06 |
| 03-21 08:35 | Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? | SELL | 0.978 | $11.74 |