0x31f4c3f06ab0e6b370ff4976b02ba3d2169012cb
- Realised P&L
- $-0.56
- Volume
- $21.37
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $7.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.650 | 0.905 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.505 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.660 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.465 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.790 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.720 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.165 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.105 | $0.15 | −$0.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.35at 0.740Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 03:01 | Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 18:24 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 22:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 14:18 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 06:08 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 20:26 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 07:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 23:34 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 15:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 04:35 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 20:35 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 12:30 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |