Frederico1st
0x31df965a843baa8b92d1e75bf26d6ffa1693413f
- Realised P&L
- $0.99
- Volume
- $23.9k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $86.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AVAX dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.960 | $86.75 | +$3.61 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 16-22? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on September 22? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.88at 0.951Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
- +$5.24at 0.960Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
- +$2.53at 0.980Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
- +$2.43at 0.980Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
- +$2.11at 0.600Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 14:32 | Will AVAX dip to $4 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999996 | $83.14 |
| 09-21 07:24 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $45 in September? | BUY | 0.9976251628 | $106.46 |
| 09-16 17:33 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.70 |
| 09-14 14:51 | Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.6 | $24.00 |
| 09-09 05:32 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on September 9? | BUY | 0.9986112377 | $111.79 |
| 08-27 10:30 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $111.31 |
| 08-21 14:51 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.87 |
| 08-11 05:30 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $112.56 |
| 07-22 04:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.013 | $7.70 |
| 07-16 15:33 | Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $120.55 |
| 05-03 09:56 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9759999999 | $52.25 |
| 04-23 06:25 | Will Solana reach $160 in April? | BUY | 0.9979999932 | $119.03 |
| 04-17 07:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $118.92 |
| 03-26 16:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | BUY | 0.999 | $140.47 |
| 03-24 14:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9899999962 | $139.06 |