hjenkins
0x31aa8e20e523e4b6837ba0c9530de96c33c3b952
- Realised P&L
- $-0.51
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $126.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.946 | 0.975 | $105.13 | +$3.13 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $255 in September? · No | 0.999 | 0.964 | $21.74 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.27at 0.610Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
- +$1.07at 0.630Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.99at 0.976Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.98at 0.992Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.75at 0.983Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 15:03 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $255 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.53 |
| 08-26 18:14 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999737 | $23.07 |
| 07-28 10:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.06 |
| 07-12 20:37 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9459999998 | $102.00 |
| 05-11 15:03 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $122.05 |
| 04-20 14:09 | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY | 0.7399999549 | $1.64 |
| 04-20 12:27 | Will Solana dip to $20 in April? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.43 |
| 04-16 09:09 | Will Solana reach $120 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.998 | $77.56 |
| 04-09 15:14 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 6-12? | BUY | 0.999 | $77.73 |
| 04-09 12:20 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? | BUY | 0.8669697704 | $2.06 |
| 04-08 10:58 | Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.36 |
| 04-02 20:54 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $79.48 |
| 04-02 20:21 | Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.06 |
| 04-02 17:17 | Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $2.15 |
| 04-02 15:05 | Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599998482 | $1.03 |