Abstrat
0x31a4b154fd4443012659ee7285e00b3103969aa7
- Realised P&L
- $58.97
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $34.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.992 | $34.70 | −$0.26 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$105.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
- +$50.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
- +$42.15at 0.160Will the government shutdown end November 12?
- +$31.54at 0.745Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
- +$27.00at 0.500Suns vs. Hawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 04:58 | Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.97 |
| 08-26 10:05 | Does Ox Alpha belong to Google? | BUY | 0.99 | $31.00 |
| 08-26 10:04 | Does Ox Alpha belong to Tencent? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.00 |
| 08-26 00:48 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.9959999891 | $40.00 |
| 08-17 08:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.97 |
| 07-02 00:17 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $61.00 |
| 07-01 00:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 06-22 12:06 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.9969999948 | $93.00 |
| 06-04 11:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? | BUY | 0.997 | $77.77 |
| 06-01 11:05 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $15.34 |
| 05-25 11:45 | Netanyahu out by May 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $112.66 |
| 05-20 03:35 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.993 | $78.45 |
| 05-19 00:45 | Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? | BUY | 0.998 | $111.78 |
| 05-18 01:09 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.987 | $44.41 |
| 05-14 09:11 | Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.976 | $30.26 |