0x31a06ade04b46d4c0a3407dfa1baa2e67a30348c
- Realised P&L
- $-15.37
- Volume
- $522.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $41.23
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.959 | $11.51 | +$0.71 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.835 | $10.02 | −$0.30 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.845 | $6.76 | +$2.76 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.935 | $6.54 | +$0.46 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.041 | $3.12 | −$1.98 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.205 | $2.46 | −$7.38 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.165 | $0.82 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.03at 0.779Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.870China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.42at 0.820Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.13at 0.960Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.03at 0.972China coup attempt before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 03:26 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 07-04 20:21 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $15.48 |
| 07-02 14:36 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $5.74 |
| 06-19 20:55 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $5.34 |
| 06-15 16:02 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 06-07 16:06 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 06-06 06:15 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $4.86 |
| 06-04 05:16 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $6.72 |
| 05-22 21:56 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 05-22 21:56 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $6.23 |
| 05-22 21:55 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $7.46 |
| 05-20 20:11 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 04-24 02:44 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 04-24 02:44 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.547 | $3.28 |
| 04-24 02:44 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.779 | $6.23 |