Thomsonfdb
0x319ae41118149f5769d6ebc273824737715b3442
- Realised P&L
- $6.06
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $26.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 · Under | 0.560 | 0.545 | $26.16 | −$0.72 |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group · HANJIN BRION | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.60 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI · T1 | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.49 |
| Will KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë win on 2026-07-22? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$493.02at 0.500Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?
- +$488.04at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
- +$141.15at 0.500Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025?
- +$136.62at 0.500Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$132.47at 0.500Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:02 | Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 | BUY | 0.56 | $26.88 |
| 09-16 03:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $29.97 |
| 09-16 03:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.00 |
| 09-04 06:10 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.68 | $21.08 |
| 08-21 06:26 | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group | BUY | 0.45 | $21.60 |
| 08-05 01:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.61 | $22.14 |
| 07-22 12:26 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.997468311 | $31.95 |
| 07-22 12:25 | Will KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë win on 2026-07-22? | BUY | 0.23 | $12.19 |
| 07-22 12:24 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.00 |
| 07-02 11:27 | Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7025 | $29.15 |
| 06-11 08:31 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | BUY | 0.53 | $17.49 |
| 05-28 06:30 | Thunder vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.6 | $24.18 |
| 05-13 02:18 | Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.998 | $32.93 |
| 05-13 02:18 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? | BUY | 0.52 | $6.76 |
| 05-13 02:18 | Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |